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GOOG 2Q25:Fundamental Bottom?

FUNDA·2025年7月25日

Paid Clicks Bottom, AI More Optimistic Than Expected

Since we began writing on Substack, we've called a fundamental bottom in three reports: SNOW 3Q24 Review, META 1Q25 Preview and MSFT 1Q25 Preview. We've been waiting for GOOG's fundamental bottom, and it appears we've arrived—pending only the final antitrust resolution.

For our earliest thoughts on GOOG and our preview report, see here.

GOOG 2Q25 Results Show Acceleration

  • Total revenue +14% YoY, above buy-side expectations of 12% and sell-side of 11%

  • Operating income slightly below expectations by 1%; excluding Texas Data Privacy impact, operating income slightly above buy-side expectations

  • Search revenue +12%, above buy-side expectations of 11% and sell-side of 9%

  • YouTube revenue +13%, above buy-side expectations of 12% and sell-side of 10%

  • GCP revenue +32%, above buy-side expectations of 28% and sell-side of 27%, accelerating 3% YoY

  • Paid clicks +4% YoY, accelerating 2% from 1Q25 and exceeding buy-side expectations by 1%

  • CAPEX raised from $75B to $85B

Key Points from Our Preview Report

AI Overview won't impact GOOG's performance in the short or long term

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