C3.AI 4Q24: On the Eve of Dawn vs An Even Longer Night

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Several months back, we introduced C3 as a “shadow play” on Palantir (PLTR), while flagging the renewal risk with Baker Hughes early on. Now that this quarter’s earnings are out, we’ve gained further thoughts on the company’s direction moving forward.

Post-Earnings Decline: Key Reasons

• Missed Buy-Side Expectations

  • Reported quarterly revenue of $98.8M vs. guidance of $95.5M–$100.5M, hitting only the midpoint of the company’s guided range.

  • Raised the lower end of full-year guidance (from $378M–$398M to $384M–$394M) but trimmed the upper end—less robust than last quarter’s performance, which exceeded guidance by about 1% and included a raise of full-year forecasts.

• Baker Hughes Renewal Left Hanging

  • The market is closely watching the renewal status of major customer and partner Baker Hughes. There was no direct mention of this during the earnings call, which added uncertainty.

Subscription Revenue: Increasing One-Time Components