TPU Update:Competitive Dynamics Shift as Google Prioritizes MediaTek Engagement

In this update, we address the sustainability of Broadcom’s AI backlog and, more importantly, the significantly evolving competitive landscape for Google’s TPU silicon. While Broadcom remains the incumbent, our latest checks indicate a structural shift as Google is now actively prioritizing its engagement with MediaTek to diversify its supply chain and mitigate concentration risk. Unlike previous assessments that viewed this potential displacement as difficult to validate, current signals imply that Google is fully committed to validating MediaTek as a second source, thereby fundamentally altering the long-term competition narrative.

This focus is substantiated by supply chain data points indicating that Google is prioritizing resources for the MTK TPU project. CoWoS wafer for the MediaTek project are currently tracking at 20k for 2026, with plans to ramp significantly to a conservative 100k (with upside rumors reaching 150k) in 2027. The technical roadmap is equally aggressive, featuring the 2026 v8x and the upcoming v8e, which utilizes Intel packaging. Volume projections for the v8e are robust, estimated at 300k units in 2027 and expanding to 2mn units by 2028. A key driver of this initiative is silicon content growth, as the architecture moves from 2 compute dies in the v8x to 4 in the v8e, underscoring Google’s serious intent to drive this roadmap forward despite the technical complexities involved.