RBRK FY3Q26: Soft Q3, Improving Q4 Trajectory, and a Constructive Outlook for 2026 Based on Channel Feedback

Rubrik’s share price has trended downward throughout this quarter following its Q2 earnings release, driven largely by several negative narratives:

• A slowdown in customer demand across the sector, which is weighing on next year’s budget outlook.

• Intensifying competition, as the data protection market appears “more competitive and increasingly visible.”

• Concerns that these dynamics may translate into softer growth momentum for the company.

We conducted channel checks specifically around these three areas and believe the actual impact on Rubrik is more limited than current sentiment suggests. While our Q3 channel sampling indicates that this quarter is not particularly strong, we do not observe a meaningful deterioration in Rubrik’s growth momentum, and the company’s competitive position remains intact. Overall channel feedback suggests that Q4 should show improvement, and expectations for next year remain broadly upbeat.

From a stock-performance standpoint, the recent decline may have already priced in most of the negative narratives. As such, the key focus of this earnings print will be the incremental color Rubrik provides regarding next quarter and next fiscal year.

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Channel Views on Next Year’s Customer Budgets

Channel partners generally expect Backup & Recovery budgets to grow at roughly the same pace as this year. However, budgets allocated to Cyber Resilience are expected to increase meaningfully, reflecting elevated security priorities and more sophisticated resiliency planning.