RBRK 1Q25:Strong Execution Continues—Watch for Buy-Side Expectation Risk

As a data security and backup platform, Rubrik (RBRK) is emerging as a clear beneficiary in the GenAI era. The company’s value proposition is becoming increasingly evident as enterprises ramp up efforts to operationalize generative AI at scale.

Our prior research suggests that enterprise adoption of GenAI typically hinges on solving two core challenges:1. Data integration and data security 2.Access control and permissions management

Rubrik plays a critical role in the first domain—specifically, ensuring the security of the rapidly growing data lakes that underpin GenAI deployments. According to our latest channel checks, at least 20% of Rubrik’s new customers are already using the platform explicitly to secure data pools built for GenAI use cases. This percentage is expected to rise meaningfully as GenAI workloads continue to scale, driving incremental consumption and stickiness.

We view Rubrik as a long-term AI beneficiary with tangible adoption momentum. Compared to another AI-adjacent security names like Okta—which focuses more on identity and access management and we did analysis before — Rubrik appears to be further along in terms of real-world enterprise deployment tied directly to GenAI initiatives.

From a quarterly standpoint and based on current full-year trends, fundamentals remain solid. That said, one potential risk lies in elevated investor expectations already reflected in the stock’s recent performance. Should there be any short-term downside—particularly if April's order delays tied to macro volatility lead to a top-line miss—it could present a buy-the-dip opportunity. Encouragingly, May trends suggest that demand has already normalized, mitigating some of that near-term risk.

Brief Introduction