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NVDA 1Q25:Q2 Guidance Aligns With Buyside Expectations; Computing Demand Remains Robust Near-Term

FUNDA·2025年5月28日

Q2 rev seen $47–48B vs guide $45–46B; GPM ~71.5% on GB200 yields as AI demand, GPU utilization stay tight.

NVIDIA Q1 Revenue Forecast

$44.4bn with Data Center Contributing $40bn.Data Center revenue impacted by $5.5bn one-time H20 write-down, with projected GPM around 58.5%. Q1 product shipment breakdown

  1. B200: ~800K units, including GB200 NVL72 equivalent shipments of ~2,000 racks

  2. H20/H200: ~400K/250K units respectively

NVIDIA's Q2 official guidance projects $45-46bn

Though our analysis suggests $47-48bn is achievable, with Data Center revenue reaching $42-43bn. GPM expected to recover to approximately 71.5% due to GB200 yield improvements:

  1. B200 Q2 shipments projected to exceed 1M units, with GB200 NVL72 equivalent shipments surpassing 8,000 racks

  2. H20/H200 Q2 shipments estimated at 50K/150K units; H20 distribution through official channels to Chinese CSPs ceased in mid-to-late May

  3. Market guidance range of $44-47bn reflects divergent views on Gaming sales and Hopper chip quarterly shipments:
    a. Gaming card sales/inventory and NVIDIA's upcoming stripped-down chip ASP (market expectations of $7-8K) may be optimistic given the absence of HBM+CoWoS packaging and reduced product competitiveness. Referencing RTX 5090's official $2,000 price point, a $4,000 rather than $8,000 price for the stripped-down chip would create a $500-600M expectation gap
    b. Our research indicates continued limited H20/H200 shipments in Q2, with H20 concentrated in early-to-mid May and H200 continuing to select enterprise customers, representing a ~$2bn difference versus pessimistic forecasts

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