META 4Q25: 4Q25 Mixed, 1Q26 May Accelerate

Before this META earnings preview, let’s first review our quarterly views on META over the past few quarters.

In our 1Q25 Preview, we mentioned that considering the depreciation of the dollar index, lower-than-expected actual tax base on Chinese goods, and META’s product progress exceeding expectations, META’s 1Q25 revenue and 2Q25 revenue would significantly beat expectations.

In our 2Q25 Preview, we continued our previous views.

In our 3Q25 Preview, we mentioned that in addition to CAPEX, META would also lease 3GW of external data centers, which would put pressure on 2026 EPS.

In this 4Q25 Preview, we once again see mixed results and more competitive risks. Our research did not cover Threads monetization. Considering the heated discussions about Threads in the past week, and that our research actually took place 2-3 weeks ago, Threads’ accelerated monetization may not have been factored into our model.

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