AI Infra, SpaceX Part 2, ASML & TSMC Earnings, TMTB AMA Next Monday, PLTR, AMZN Acquiring GSAT

A catalyst-heavy week, and the catalysts all printed in one direction. TSMC raised full-year 2026 revenue growth guidance to >30% YoY, ASML revised 2026 revenue up to €36-40bn (from €34-39bn) and flagged 2027 EUV supply shortage, and Anthropic’s ARR has increased~ripped~ from >$9bn at end-2025 to >$30bn in April. We think t~T~he through-line is simple: Agentic AI is real, it is converting into revenue faster than the street modeled three months ago, and the bottleneck is now squarely on the supply side — advanced nodes, fab equipment, memory, CPU, and the interconnect fabric around compute.

We used the week to publish a couple of substantive pieces of the year. The AI Infra 2026 deep dive lays out why networking — not FLOPS — is now the binding constraint for Agent workloads, and why Google’s scale-up dimensionality roadmap (3D torus → 4D+ → 6D+) plus DCN expansion will meaningfully reset OCS, Coherent Lite, and transceiver TAM over the next 2-3 years. The report became the most-read report in our history within just three days of publishing. The SpaceX Part 2 deep dive walks through Starlink unit economics, the Starshield government vertical, and a bottom-up SOTP against the $2T IPO figure being discussed.

Heading into next week, the earnings season kicks off, and Google Cloud Next (Apr 22-24) should be a catalyst for the TPU ecosystem thesis we laid out. We stay constructive on AI semis and hardware, and are watching software carefully as companies provide more color on AI impact during earnings.

Also, we are glad to be the inaugural guest of our friend TMTBreakout’s Slack AMA event. See you at 10:30am ET next Monday!

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