METAGOOGLAMZN

Meta 3q25 Meta Is Doubling

FUNDA·October 21, 2025

Overlay, WhatsApp, CAPEX, Short Drama and AppLovin, ORCL/CRWV/GCP

We accurately predicted META’s performance in both 1Q25 and 2Q25. Even during 1Q25, when everyone was pessimistic about tariffs, we conducted extensive research with Chinese e-commerce advertisers and referenced changes in the US Dollar Index. Ultimately, we believed that these factors might have no impact on META’s performance.

Now let’s dive into the 3Q25 META Preview

There are many interesting changes in the 3Q25 META Preview:

  1. META is doubling down on AI Compute; in fact, META’s CAPEX for next year has already doubled, but the increase is in off-balance-sheet CAPEX

  2. Reels released more ad inventory in 3Q25, mainly because Overlay ads lowered the standards for ad creative placement. Overlay ads account for a very large proportion of advertising on Douyin in China, and creators are very familiar with how to integrate Overlay ads into their creative content

  3. WhatsApp ad progress has not been as smooth as expected.

  4. META’s Short Drama clients began shifting to AppLovin this quarter

Meta Preview

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