INTC 4Q25: Supply Bottlenecks Drive ASP Uplift; 18A Yields and Restructuring Fuel Margin Expansion

Intel is scheduled to report its Q4 2025 earnings after the market closes on Jan 22, 2026. This marks the first annual summary under CEO Lip-Bu Tan. Since Q4 2025, we have observed emerging supply shortages in both PC and server markets, and we project an increase in ASP for both segments in 2026. Our thesis remains unchanged: against a backdrop of supply constraints—where Intel’s capacity is fully loaded while AMD is expected to secure only 80% of its required wafer allocation from TSMC in 2026—Intel Product is poised to benefit from revenue growth and margin expansion driven by rising ASPs.

Regarding Intel Foundry, we anticipate that the collaboration on Intel 18A-P with Apple’s M-series is ongoing. Furthermore, engagements for Intel 14A are progressing with key clients, including Apple (low-end A-series) and Nvidia (server CPUs co-developed w/ Intel and entry-level gaming GPUs).

Server and PC Outlook

As highlighted in our previous two reports, the growth in general server demand, which we currently forecast an 18% increase in 2026, is causing a supply deficit for server CPUs. Beyond simple price hikes, we expect Intel to optimize its product mix, further driving up the overall blended ASP.