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Applovin 4Q24: Beat or Buy the Dip

FUNDA·February 11, 2025

Shein/Temu spend ramps into 2025; low 7–8% take rate may cap Q4, but rising TR and share gains drive upside.

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In this report, we conducted several first-hand research efforts, including investigations into Applovin's largest advertisers, SHEIN and TEMU, as well as several of Applovin's agencies. We also compiled various market research information and built a simple model to predict Applovin's revenue in 2025.

For this year's key debates surrounding Applovin, I attempted to elaborate from various angles and conducted a bull-bear debate. In the bull-bear debate, we discussed the reality of the e-commerce take rate, whether the take rate would increase, and how Applovin can obtain e-commerce data.

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